Will Napa ag land stay in ‘fashion’?

(NVR) - In an article about the recent wine economic forum (“Wine industry leaders urge more teamwork and innovation,” Sept. 1) Bill Harlan wonders whether those buying vineyards now will have the long-term dedication required to keep ag land ag land. Will they understand and respect the soil and the heritage, even when the markets are down?

To shed some light on that question, consider the concept of fashion. Although “fashion” is most often applied to clothing, it is rightfully applied to everything purchased in a given timespan. In the U.S., when big money is spent in waves, it is Western fashion in action, be it tech, land, clothes, cars, travel — all the consumer categories. We are a laterally trending, consumer-driven economy.

So, judging from the usual cycles of these consumer categories, if I can project a best guess on the future intentions of new lifestyle vineyard owners, I would say that the wine industry needs to prepare now to avoid a disappointing sell-off if vineyards become so yesterday.

The question is: How many will sell out and will those exits sway the sensibilities or politics in Napa Valley enough to change planning regulations? To get forensic about a prediction, one would have to weigh all the factors that would cause such change. It’s all possible and probably worth it in order to plot a vineyard fashion curve, with a timeline, but I suspect it will look familiar, like any other fashion bell curve.