2% growth in Europe - lay off the wine!

(Portfolio-Adviser) - Finally a holiday where an easy calm settled and no disasters hit the global economy or financial markets.

Indeed, the worst that occurred were some suspect corporate results in the US (brushed off with barely a whimper) and some overdue profit taking in Japan.

Forget those side-stories though, the big news was in Europe where all signs are now pointing to il grande recessione being in its final countdown. Surely it was no coincidence that I was being financially molested by our Tuscan and Roman friends at the time.

I was beginning to worry that we would have to start prostrating ourselves upon the carpet of shame to get a good kicking over our forecasts that Europe would return to growth in the second half of 2013.

Lonely vie

Indeed, a recent press event with celebrated peers reminded me that our's was still a lonely view. Last week though saw a belated return to growth in the European manufacturing sector, driven primarily by the Teutonic heavyweight, but aided by an improving delta in the peripheral problem children.

Indeed, the periphery has made significant steps back towards growth over the recent months (see Chart 1 below). This data point was extremely important as it was the first time that it had shown growth in manufacturing in 24 long and painful months.

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